Unemployed Exceeds Job Openings

For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of unemployed people in the U.S. has exceeded the number of available job openings. In July 2025, job openings dropped to approximately 7.18 million, while the number of unemployed stood slightly higher at around 7.2 million.

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What This Means

• Labor Market Cooling: Traditionally, job openings outnumber unemployed individuals—a sign of a tight labor market with plenty of opportunities. This reversal signals a shift toward a cooler labor market with weaker demand for workers.
• Fed Policy Implications: This cooling supports expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon, as a softer labor market raises concerns about slower economic growth.
• Economic Drag Ahead: Fewer openings may reduce job mobility, slow wage growth, and limit opportunities for career advancement. Analysts describe this as “another crack in the labor market,” which could drag on consumer spending and overall economic vitality.

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Quick Snapshot

Metric	July 2025 (Approx.)
Unemployed Persons	~7.2 million
Job Openings	~7.18 million
Outcome	Unemployed > Openings

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Sectoral Impact — Sectors Most Affected (Falling Openings)

According to JOLTS and recent reports:

Healthcare & Social Assistance

Saw a notable decline in job openings in July, despite historically strong demand in this sector.

Retail Trade

Also recorded a pullback in vacancies in July, contributing to the broader opening-end unemployment crossover.

Accommodation & Food Services (Hospitality)

Experienced one of the largest month-to-month falls in opening counts—down by around 308,000 in June.

Construction

Continues to struggle, with openings declining (e.g., –38,000 in March). It also hit the lowest hiring rate on record in March.

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Sectors Holding Up Relatively Better

• Retail Trade (May boost)
  • While retail saw declines later, May saw a +190,000 increase in openings. This suggests some volatility and sector-specific timing differences.
• Manufacturing
  • Exhibited small gains earlier in the year (+4,000 openings in March).
  • But longer-term trends and job losses (e.g., in July’s payroll data) indicate deeper weaknesses in manufacturing hiring over time.

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Summary Table: Sector Snapshot

Sector	Recent Trend in Job Openings
Healthcare & Social Assistance	Sharp decline in July—major past demand now cooling
Retail Trade	Decline in July openings; volatile gains in May
Hospitality (Food & Accomm.)	Big drop in openings (~308k decline in June)
Construction	Ongoing struggle—falling openings and lowest hires rate
Manufacturing	Slight gains earlier, but broader weakness rising

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Key Takeaways

• Sectors like healthcare, retail, hospitality, and construction are experiencing sharper drops in recruitment and openings, likely reflecting weakening demand and economic caution.
• Manufacturing shows a more mixed trend—modest openings earlier but tempered by recent job cuts and macro pressures.
• Even once-robust sectors like healthcare are now cooling, which underscores the breadth of the labor slowdown.

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Bottom Line

There are now more unemployed Americans than job openings, marking a notable shift in the U.S. labor market. It reflects cooling conditions, reinforces expectations for rate cuts, and raises concerns about a slowdown in job creation and consumer strength.

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